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Volkswagen
This is Volkswagen as it trades in Frankfurt in Euros. The 52 week range was from a high of E254.99 to this morning’s low of E126.70. The high was on March 17, exactly 1/2 year ago. That is down slightly more than 50%. Today’s move alone was good for 23%.
The cause today is no doubt related to tinkering with the engine computer system in order to give better, much better, readings when emission control tests were conducted, but clearly there was a lot more going on well before this latest revelation. Volkswagen, the World’s no.2 automaker has been trying to grow at a very rapid pace in the US market. It has been a very ambitious goal which has allowed the company to stray from the straight and narrow much like a Tour de France cyclist using doping.
The message, of course, is that we are entering a bear market because the mood is bad. What might have been tolerated in upbeat times will not be condoned today. A policy of growth at any costs invites these moral infractions , as it blinds management to all the other things that are important.
In EW terms I suspect that we are in some 3d wave so there is more, perhaps a lot more, to go.
LB, Laurentian Bank and the Dividend Gross-up
Laurentian Bank has outperformed the TSX by something in the order of 7% during the last year. It trades at a P/E under 10 which is about 20% better than the banks in general. Its earnings, last reported on Sept. 2 were very good and it pays a dividend of 4.5%. Should you buy the stock? That depends.
On an EW basis you are probable about to finish a wave 2 or B up in a correction so either 3 or C is next. Not the best of times. Furthermore you are at the upper end of a well defined channel and, all things being equal ( they never are, by the way), you would prefer to buy at the lower boundary of the channel.
Fundamentally things are a little more complex. Keynes et al believed in their hearts that postponing immediate gratification was not really a sacrifice and therefore it should not command a price. Interest rates should be zero using this philosophy. Apparently, without openly subscribing to this thought (the Fed. cannot as interest rates are their main tool), it would appear that after what was said yesterday they are de facto agreeing as rates will never again go up. In light of this, getting onboard sooner rather than later may well be the best choice.
Then there is that not very well understood little thing called dividend gross up. It is not a minor thing, it is huge and the more so the lower your income! Dividends are after tax profits that are paid to shareholders. If these were taxed as simple income, as in interest, then there would be double taxation, first at the corporate and then the individual level. That would not be fair. Therefore they invented the gross up which serves to add back the taxes paid by the corporation and then they tax you at some arbitrary rate that should even it all out. For 2015 you can earn $43.807 in dividend income without personally paying taxes (including AMT) if you have no other income! At a 4.5% dividend you can therefore buy $973.488 worth of LB shares. That is roughly 20,000 shares. No need for an RRSP or TFSA.
Nasdaq 100
You can get these charts for free at www.chartoftheday.com . They are randomly chosen. This one is of the Nasdaq 100, in short the tech index for the big boys. Does anyone see a double top? Anyone see 5 waves up from the 03 lows? To us it looks like a 3-wave B-wave ready to break support at any moment now. Yes, the post-financial crisis rally is still intact but if it breaks there really is nothing to hold it up un till you are down to about 2500/2000, roughly 50%. If this is a “flat” as we think it is, it will fall back to the bottom of the chart and then some.