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VRX update

Hamilton

vrx nov 1 2015vrx oct1 2015 s

FROM THE RECENT PAST,

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Stock Rating Reaffirmed by RBC Capital (VRX)

October 20th, 2015 – 0 comments – Filed Under – by Faye Duncan

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Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl logoValeant Pharmaceuticals Intl (TSE:VRX)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reiterated by equities researchers at RBC Capital in a report released on Tuesday, StockTargetPrices.com reports.

Shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl (TSE:VRX) traded down 8.74% during mid-day trading on Tuesday, reaching $194.42. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 770,893 shares. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $266.05 and a 200-day moving average of $283.41. The firm has a market capitalization of $66.64 billion and a PE ratio of 80.64. Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl has a 52 week low of $140.61 and a 52 week high of $347.84.

Separately, TD Securities dropped their price objective on Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl from C$300.00 to C$285.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, September 30th.

 

We have talked about this before but things are getting ugly fast so it bears repeating. The guys at Citron are now labelled as the villains because it is they that spoiled the party for not so altruistic purposes. The talk is that “regulators” should have stepped in and put a halt to all these false (??) accusations and innuendo. There is, however, a legal defence as in suing for defamation. It has the charming attribute that unlike in most legal matters, the accused party is assumed guilty until proven innocent.  Between deep pocketed corporations this does not matter that much but not so when one of the parties is the little guy. In those cases it usually boils down to an act of extreme cowardice aimed towards muzzling the opponent.

In all cases the truth is ultimately the best defence and invariable when there is a cockroach, more are found as time moves on. Those that do the opposite, that is recommend these stocks wearing blinkers are never faulted even if, in the eyes of any prudent person, such recommendations border on the ridiculous. Above are two such recommendations from the two largest and highly respected trading outfits in Canada/US. This is not surprising as they themselves often cause the lofty levels in the first place. Like horses, that are so afraid of their own shadows, particularly when in traffic, they must wear blinkers that blind them to reality and keep pushing the “narrative”.

We had an initial bounce off the lows for VRX and at this point it is hard to tell where the stock might go. Longer-term, that is over the next year or so, we think it may go lower to about, perhaps, $55 or so. There is no complete 5-waves down let alone an a-b-c correction so there still is something missing. RSI and MACD, as well as a nice cross-over point towards the upside but, as always, discretion is the better part of valour.

Ironically Ackman’s Pershing Square hedge fund reportedly has 30% invested in VRX. He is the same guy that aggressively shorted Herbalife (HLF) on which he also lost a fortune. What goes around, comes around. There are 131 hedge funds holding about 32% of VRX stock, herding maybe?

EEFT, Euronet

Hamilton

eeft oct 30 2015

This company has been around since the late eighties and has it’s origins in Hungary of all places all though it is incorporated in the US. A good part of it’s business involves money transfers and FX transaction. It got a solid boost when it was able to muscle out Western Union (WU) and Moneygram (MCI) from their partnership position with Wallmart in 2014. If this sort of stuff tickles you pink then buying these shares in the past year or two would have netted you 1 to 2x your money back plus the original investment, compared to perhaps losing it all.

   We do not like the stock anymore. 1. we are in the pure vertical stage, 2. it is possible to count a clear 5 wave move up from the lows of 2009, 3. the RSI is once again approaching the 80% level, 4. even though we are not quite there yet this stock is doing a heroic Mnt. Everest climb which would ideally take the stock to 100 but not necessarily, 5. the p/e is trading at a lofty 46x, about 3x the norm, 6. the business is quickly becoming commoditized. Every Tom, Dick and Harry is getting into the business and there were already too many players.

Definitely a sell here and certainly anywhere between here and $100. A reasonable first target is either $45 or $36 or so.

Note: We are confident that 5 waves up are complete or nearly so. Even so we are open to the idea that wave 4 might have occurred a little later in the sequence than shown, that is starting at $55. This would become more compelling in the event that the stock does, in fact, manage to climb to $100.

GPRO update

Hamilton

The usual then, April 29, 2015, and now charts;

GPRO april 29 2015GPRO oct 29 2015

We were asleep again and did not look at this stock. See our previous blog. Recently we got the rebound level in both the Dow and the S&P dead wrong so it is heart warming that we did get this one right. That is so far at least. The then suggested target of $24 may, however, be way too high. $5 is a possibility if both A and C legs become equal in size. It appears that we are in a 5th wave of C which should take the stock to about $20 as a minimum. Time will tell.

Zenbanx , a very good deal , update

Hamilton

Zenbanx oct 24 2015

zenbanx oct 24 2015 2

Again one of these pop-up advertisements popped up on my screen the other day. As I have always admired the gentleman behind the “save your money” Ing Bank stuff, I took a little time to read through this.

In financial services as almost everywhere else it is all about branding. I you are thinking of cowboys running after cows with hot irons to plant a big Z on their derrieres, you have caught the essence of branding spot on. It is the marketing practice of creating a name, symbol or design that identifies and differentiates a product from other products. The “target” group in this case are the citizens of the World. Not sure, but I think I might qualify having lived, and in most cases, worked, in Holland, Indonesia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Most of the rest I travelled to. But I do not use a mobile device.

   Marketing is a tricky business. One of the Saatchi brothers was my neighbour in St. John’s Wood in London. They were  extremely successful but one or two missteps brought them to their knees. You have to capture the mood and get it perfectly right.

   As a kid in the early 60-ties we used to drive from Istanbul to Holland, at times through countries that were then behind the iron curtain. On one of these occasions we drove through Stuttgart in order to pick-up a spanking new Mercedes. You know these cars from the star that is on the hood, you get so accustomed to it that you even wonder if the car can drive without it. No marketing type would dream of taking it off.

As we frequently drove the hairpins of the Alps, my father bought an air horn to compete with the many trucks. We were going to install it ourselves while staying at Schloss Itter.  An air horn has a relatively heavy electric motor and consequently uses two circuits, one to switch it on and another to carry the high Amp. load. The relay is where the two connect.  Zenbanx, being the brand part, is the equivalent of the switch circuit. The heavy duty stuff is farmed out to a partner that has the bank credentials.

So how does this work?  You open an account (no cost), put in $150 + and go X-mas shopping using your debit card (no point of sale costs) and buy 3 separate items of $50 +. Any combination will do. In January you will receive a credit for $50.  During the ride you get 1.5% interest. That is a certain return of 30+% between Thanksgiving (Can. Oct 12.) and the New Year. This is good only for the first 5000 new clients. Should Zenbanx succeed, it will cost them, roughly, 5000 X $50 = $250,000.  Where does it come from? I guess I don’t get the “zin” of it but nevertheless wish them all the best.