Nikkei Feb 26.

There appears some confusion as to where we probable are in the wave counts. To try to clarify all this, as best as I can ,  here is the which, at least to this point is clear. Here it is.

Nikkei Feb 26

There are 4 possibilities, all pointing down.

The most bullish for the next few weeks would be the one in red, an A-B-C. We just recently completed the B leg and are on our way to do the C. This one is not very elegant and we require a few adjustments at the top.

Exact same idea but much shorter in time (in green) an a-b-c flat as above  followed by wave 5 down. This last leg is already well developed as it is about halfway down.

The 3d possibility, in light blue is the moat elegant. We are in a triangle, just embarked on wave c up, d and e to follow. This is the most “acceptable” interpretation as it fits wave wave 2 and the alternation guideline. Also it explains breaking the trend channel to the right as this is exactly what triangles commonly do.

The 4th possibility, not shown , is that we are in a downward pointing wedge and are in the first or second downward leg, see below on “Are we there yet”or Telus.

All these possibilities apply in different ways to the different markets, the TSE, S&P etc. etc.

There is no credible bullish count that I can find, without resorting to that deus ex machina , the failure, the structure just is not there to support that notion. Remember that what may apply to an index does not necessarily apply to an individual stock.