AA , Alcoa

Either they are going to build planes with balsa and sell beer in tin, or there is something odd with this stock. Here is the chart;

AA july 2011

It is unlikely that the stock would go below the recent $4 and accordingly I would prefer to contemplate a bullish outcome. However that does not mean that the stock cannot go sideways for a long time. With a P/E at 23 there certainly is still room for a drop, albeit probable not below $4. However if you look at it on a semi-log scale anything still looks plausible.

aa july arith aa jul log

The semi-log scale is on the right. Clearly there still is “room” on the downside, making the notion that the move from the is simple a 4th wave all the more plausible. Use a stop at $14 or so. By the way we did recommend the stock below $5, see below.

AA old