CAC40, Paris

The CAC40 has been a model for  doing what is expected of it, and was somewhere in the middle of the lot, above the AEX (Amsterdam) but below the DAX (Frankfurt). We had it in one of our comments first in March 13th of this year (it can be retrieved under CAC40). Here is that chart;


For color I added some silly comments re Edith Piaff, but the main message then was that this index was going to go down, based ,of course , on the EW patterns. Here is today’s comparable chart;

cac aug 2011

I have tried to duplicate the annotations from the old chart onto today’s , keeping the angle more or less the same. Of course the lower chart shifts about 4 months to the left. They can be aligned perfectly by clicking on them and then moving them around. Anyway, so far we have retraced almost 70% of the post March rally. Also we are on pace to do it at practically the same angle, that is at the same speed as in 2008. Obviously this index is oversold as can be seen from the RSI and MACD. A bounce around here or a little lower should perhaps be anticipated, but this drop cannot be complete. There are at least two 1-2 s at the top of this decline, if not three. Also the last 800 points are straight down, not the usual way for these drops to end. We should get to the bottom of this, perhaps in as little as two or three months!