dax aug 12 2011

The DAX should drop further, the structure to date cannot possible be complete. At best just the a leg could be complete but even then as a minimum we should get a b and c.

The DAX has an interesting chart in that no other major index looks anything like it. Of course they all have the same ups and downs but they do not have this very distinct triangle pattern. That this is unique to the DAX is perhaps a hint that it is incorrect,  but one must keep an open mind at all times.     A triangle has at least 5 waves, 3-3-3-3-3 (in some cases it extends). All the waves in this chart appear to conform to the a-b-c structure for each leg, except wave B, the second one. It could be a 3-wave affair but superficially it certainly looks more like 5. If that detail is overlooked the triangle, so far at least, is legitimate. The respective sizes is also within the normal parameters.

E is not yet complete, it may fall short of a normal target or it may exceed it. Normal would be about 4500, the absolute low would be about 3600. The alternative count, which applies to almost all other indices would call for a much lower drop. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.