Hang Seng, TSX, XFN and RY

 hang seng hsi nov 29 2011 tsx nov 29 2011

xfn nov 29 2011 ry nov 29 2011

Superficially, all four, the Hang Seng, TSE, Capped Financial ETF and the Royal, have done roughly the same thing, but if you drill down a bit there are some differences. For instance, the Hang Seng starts tanking a full six months before the others topping in Nov. of ‘09. The others wait till March or even April of ‘10. From hi to low the HSI loses the most at about 34%, RY 30% and the TSX 24%. The only manages about 20% The path for all four follows a neat EW pattern, 1-2-3-4-5, except that the wave 2 is very messy and so is the 4-5. In fact it is not even clear if a 5 wave sequence is indeed complete. The only one of the four that, so far at least, adheres strictly to a clean channel is the HSI. In all cases we cannot be completely sure that the recent rebound is a wave 2 ,or part of that, or a wave 4, and consequently we do not know if the most recent down leg was a wave b, or wave 5 of 1 , or wave 1 of 3. Fortunately b-waves are followed by c, a 4 by 5 and a 1 by 2. On average the Royal should be a screaming buy anywhere between here and $41, at least for a trade. (see previous blog).