AOI.V, Africa Oil Corp update

aoi JUL 2012 BAOI jul 2012

Whenever you hit a top, your next expectation is that the stock will drop back to the 4th wave of previous degree and erase about 50 0 62% of the gains it made in the entire preceding up leg. The 4th is just under $6.50. 50% is about $5 and 60% $6 so that could normally take the stock to $6 or perhaps $5. So far the stock has dropped to $7 and consequently has not (yet) fulfilled these two reasonable expectations.

Next correction always take the form of a-b-c, which can be a flat 3-3-5 or a zig-zag 5-3-5. The drop from $11 to $7 is hard to count but almost certainly does not have the required b part un less it is the triangle as shown. For a 4th wave it is already rather big so it is a better bet that it is a b-wave triangle as shown in the alternative. That implies that the c is yet to come. Add it all up and it is probable too early to buy. As they say, good things come to those that wait.

By comparison here is another Vancouver stock that has almost completed the ride down, but much deeper than AOI;

CUA JUL 2012aoi JUL 2012 B

AOI is repeated here, on the left, to make the comparison easier. Of particular interest is the RSI, in the case of CUA it went to “oversold” levels, AOI is still comfortable in the middle of the range at about 50.