UN, Unilever update

un sept 2012

A month or so ago this stock looked ripe for a good drop. Instead it is up marginally by a single dollar. Over all of last year it has managed to add only a dollar or two compared to the $16 or so immediately following the lows of March 2009. That was 100% up in less than a year and lately it took more than a year to add 5/10%. In fact, over the last full 3 years the stock added a mere $3 to $33, less than an absolute 10%. Clearly momentum is waning. This stock may be more representative of the US markets, at least as expressed by the Dow Jones or S&P. As it stands they too are just 8% away from the all time highs.

The rise from the March lows is clearly still an a-b- counter-trend move. Even if this stock manages to double top the next big move should still be down to $26 in the best case, much lower in the worst case. Quantitative easing, twisting, bond buying  and most importantly talking up, should have little or no impact anymore on the amount of margarine you put on your toast.

Below is another picture of this stock and where it sits relative to the longer trend-lines;

un b sept 2012