Year: 2012

VT, Viterra Inc

Hamilton

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We have seen this movie before, with Potash as the main actor instead of Viterra. There are many differences but there are also many similarities. Both started life as “cooperative” endeavours that “pooled” the energies of many farmers or many miners in order to manipulate the markets. This was done in the form of crown corporations that were , fairly recently, “demutualized” so to speak and now operate as private stock companies and now operate by raw capitalist rules. This explains the extraordinary situation where a single foreign individual can accumulate a fortune of nearly a billion dollars in ten years time and simultaneously enjoy the  fatherly (misguided?) support of the premier of the province that is , arguable, Canada’s most socialistic. The point really is that there are a lot of undercurrents in these situations. They create deal risk. We have it all the time. Potash is trading well below the peak it reached soon after the announcement. X, the Toronto stock exchange trades well below the takeover bid by the Maple group, Lundin was a complete disaster etc.etc.

You should sell here!, or if you enjoy playing chicken little with a freight train, wait for $15.25 where the stock would “double-top”. Later on, with the benefit of hindsight, this may well prove to be the wrong  thing to do, but at this moment it is the smartest thing to do.

IRM, Iron Mountain Inc.

Hamilton

This company is not a mine company despite what the name might suggest. They are in the document archiving or destruction (shredding) business and just happened to use an old mine to store things underground. Here are the charts;

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On the left is the long-term chart. It shows an absolutely perfect a-b-c B-wave back up from the lows. This would obviously suggest that the next big move is going to be down in the C-wave. The short-term chart contradicts this conclusion. It shows a plausible triangle which would normally have to be a wave 4, so next we should get wave 5 up which, not surprisingly measures about $8 and therefore would bring the stock to within a single dollar of double topping at $38+. Faced with such a high degree of ambiguity one should be prepared for either outcome. Should the stock drop below $28 and then $27 the outcome should be negative. On the other hand if the stock manages to move above $31.25 a thrust up to $38 should be anticipated. Then it would be a sell/short.

Given the overlap that has already occurred, the only logical alternative bullish scenario that remains, is that we are in a “diagonal”, that is a wedge, wave 5 to a new high. The triangle would be wave 4 in the wedge and the coming “thrust”would be wave 5 of the wedge. The end result would not be much different from this being wave 4 of c of B and the target would be , more or less, identical at around $38+.This is shown in red below;

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EL, Estee Lauder Cos Inc.

Hamilton

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EL Analyst Opinion

This stock has traded at a high of $60.365 but the charts suggest it might go a little higher. The charts and the price targets of 18 brokers suggest maybe $65 is in the cards. By the way not a single broker is suggesting a sell. If one considers that those lucky enough to own this stock, have a six bagger for sure one can only wonder what the adage buy low, sell high  means in practice. In our opinion it means now or hold on with a very tight stop.

    There are a few very good reasons to sell. The upper trend line is at about $65. At $65 waves 1 and 5 are equal. $62 is a nice round Fibo #. A thrust from the present, minor wave 4 triangle, would target about $63. The RSI and MACD are both already heading down. Last but not least, the analysts that are always excellent prognosticators are calling for $63.56, not a single one out of 18 has a sell, it does not seem to be part of their DNA