Year: 2012

HLF, Herbalife Ltd.

Hamilton

hlf jul 31 2012 lhlf jul 31 2012

Like COH below, this is another member of the $5 to $75 club. Who said we were in a depression. The Fed is creating another bubble as it pursues it’s third mandate, the first two are already irreconcilable as they are mutually exclusive (inflation/interest rates and full employment) and adding a third, surreptitiously through the backdoor, but nevertheless quite openly and deliberately, will just serve to confuse all and mostly the Fed itself.

The big picture is less clear, on the other hand wave A down is very clear. They will be buying more of their own stock which is almost always done at too high a price. Expect the rebound to get to about $61, then wave C should start.

If you are the least bit confused about what Herbalife does, here is an excerpt from their website;

Herbalife

If ever you find it hard to attain financial freedom by investing, this might be the better way. As a direct distributor not only do you help others , just like investment advisors, but on top of that you will experience financial freedom the nutritionally  proper way.

COH Coach Inc.

Hamilton

coh jul 31 2012 lcoh jul 31 2012 s

The stock stops dead in it’s tracks where the two parallel trend-lines intersect. Presently it is on a path towards the lowest point of the triangle. It should do an A-B-C at the very least, perhaps a zig-zag as shown, only a little further than that. Wave 4 of previous degree is at $10.

FB, Facebook

Hamilton

fb jul 31 2012

There is not much chart to go by.The assumption is that the $44+ high immediately following the senseless orgy of greed attending the IPO, is the high. A correction from there would take on the A-B-C shape, probable a zig-zag considering that the B did not even get close to those highs. Should the C equal A, not uncommon, the target would be roughly $15/16. If we leave the gap in the middle the target is around $18/19. A total loss of 62% would target $17. Our best guess $17. At that level you would also be down about 50% from the “official” issue price if you actually received an allocation.

UBS, the Swiss banking power house will be suing the exchange for losses incurred as a result of the alleged mishandling of this issue. ($350 mln?) Apparently greed has little respect for greed.

CCO , Cameco update

Hamilton

It has been about 8 months or so since we last commented on CCO. We were, and are, essentially constructive on the stock but were wrong in the low of $15 that we were expecting (see green on the detailed chart). After that a large rebound was to happen (to $27.50) which in fact almost did happen. Here are todays charts;

cco jul 2012 bcco jul 2012 s

In green, in detail, what we were expecting, in black what we actually got. There is very little room for the big triangle shown. The stock should trade under $15 given the clear a-b-c move from about $15 to $45, but, in order for this to become a big 4th wave it cannot go below about $13. For the triangle to hold it has to go up right away in wave c. If the triangle is not operative we are probable looking at an a-b-c X a-b-c corrective structure that cannot go below $13, but, on second thought, it actually can (for instance if the top shown is not the top of 3 but 5 instead!). All told, probable a buy with a very tight stop-loss. If all this is too confusing, wait for the sequel, it may be more straightforward. Fundamentally this should be a buy somewhere here, with a huge upside.