CCO , Cameco update

It has been about 8 months or so since we last commented on CCO. We were, and are, essentially constructive on the stock but were wrong in the low of $15 that we were expecting (see green on the detailed chart). After that a large rebound was to happen (to $27.50) which in fact almost did happen. Here are todays charts;

cco jul 2012 bcco jul 2012 s

In green, in detail, what we were expecting, in black what we actually got. There is very little room for the big triangle shown. The stock should trade under $15 given the clear a-b-c move from about $15 to $45, but, in order for this to become a big 4th wave it cannot go below about $13. For the triangle to hold it has to go up right away in wave c. If the triangle is not operative we are probable looking at a-b-c X a-b-c corrective structure that cannot go below $13, but, on second thought, it actually can (for instance if the top shown is not the top of 3 but 5 instead!). All told, probable a buy with a very tight stop-loss. If all this is too confusing, wait for the sequel, it may be more straightforward. Fundamentally this should be a buy somewhere here, with a huge upside.