Corporate after tax profits vs. Wages and Salaries

corporate profits- wages salaries

This chart has shown up in various different blogs and since it is from the Fed.(St. Louis), I am taking the liberty to use it here as well. I have added two horizontal lines approximately where I guess the average would be over this sixty-six year period. Also added are directional arrows highlighting the direction in which these variables have been moving. The chart is difficult to read. The left hand scale  tells you what percentage of GDP (Gross National Product) corporate profits , after tax constitute. So the average would be about 6% of GDP. The right hand scale shows what percentage “wages and salaries” are of GDP, about 50% on average.

    The Fed. has a dual mandate. Keep prices stable which equates to keeping the value of the dollar constant (with 2% deliberate slippage!), and keep the population employed, newly defined as below 6.5%.  Anyone that has even remotely sniffed at economics will know that these two are mutually exclusive but that should not bother politicians. What should bother them is that it demonstrable does not work.

   A little known fact is that governments are always net borrowers. Corporations can be both borrowers or lenders but on balance the are also borrowers. Households, even if they are not always aware of it, are always net lenders. Artificially low interest rates therefore give an advantage to corporations. They also promote capital intensive activities at the expense of labour intensive activities. I could go on for hours on this topic, the simple point  , however, and this is demonstrated in spades by the above chart, is that the goal is not achieved.  Apparently  Sir Mervyn King, the predecessor of Mark Carney, at the Old Lady of Threadneedle street, learned as much today when his board failed to support him in his quest towards more stimulus. Writing on the wall??

RY update

Then , Oct. 23, 2012 and now charts as usual;

ry oct 23 2012ry feb 19 2013

Back in October of last year we volunteered the idea of an enormous “diagonal” as the sole bullish count that we could possible put on RY stock, but did recommend selling it at about $60. The unthinkable has happened and the stock has made another , new high, the only bank stock to do so (excluding HCG). Then we calculated a high of roughly $65 for this pattern should it become reality. Today’s high was $64.90, see below;

ry feb 19 2013 s

This should, give or take, complete the last leg in the diagonal (if that is what it is) and should unfold as a 3-wave affaire as it has. The RSI is , of course, already exploding to the upside into overbought territory for the last three months. The MACD is not confirming for more than a year now. Who could have thought that this stock could be up more than 50% in 14 months. Now it should definitely be sold.

HUM, Humana Inc.

Hum feb 19 2013 bHUM feb 19 2013 s

Humana  has had a rollercoaster performance over the past 10 or so years. From $10 to $90, back to $20 and then back up almost to $96. As seems to be the case in almost every instance, there is no perfectly clear and unequivocal wave count that readily fits this pattern. It must either be a 4th and 5th wave one after the other or  a 5th wave followed by an irregular B-wave. There are some problems with that as the intervening drop might be viewed as a 5-wave move rather than an A-B-C.    However, looking at the short term chart, we appear to have 5-waves down followed by an a-b-c up retracement. Furthermore, today’s drop of 8% or so has all the earmarks of the beginnings of a third wave. A sell.

GOOG, update.

goog feb 19 2013 bgoog feb 19 2013 s

At $675 this one looked pretty toppish back in August of last year. It seemed to be a sell , but quite obviously it wasn’t. Looking at the Bloomberg website, I noticed a blog in which a young lady, Genna S. , pontificated that this stock was a buy, much better than a lot of others. At least three financial reporters around the table looked on in awe and then proceeded to proclaim that the young sage had all the attributes of a Warren Buffett. At the risk of making a fool of our self, once again, we would like to disagree with this precocious investor. The count is ambiguous but there is either a big, or a small triangle there followed by what looks like a wedge, none of which is positive for the near future. A sell.