Shanghai update

Shanghai Composite Index june 26 2015

All is well in China, for the moment. If you look a little closer however you will see that this index is down about 20% just in the last month. What goes up, must come down appears to be the prevailing philosophy, that is if there is any philosophy at all. This market resembles a casino more than any other. EW works when a large numbers of people pursue their individual instincts. In a collective mindset it may not work the same way. In any event, if it does, the above depicts what might happen. The main catalyst would probable be Schumpeter’s constructive destruction in the context of colossal misallocation of capital and the resulting overcapacity.