TRQ update and Copper, the stuff

The usual, then Feb. 2014, and now charts;

TRQ feb 2014 bTRQ june 23 2015

Turquoise Hill Resources – formerly Ivanhoe – had completed a full correction, an A-B-C, with all the requisite subdivisions , in particular a 5th wave wedge in the C leg, which confidently suggested this was a buy. It was. The low was at $3.17 and the high after that at $5.80 and we defined the break-out point at about $4. In short you could have easily made 30+% This massive mine is now owned by Rio Tinto (51%) and represents a significant part of the Mongolian economy. A collaborative approach to operating this asset is now in everybody’s interest. Consequently more upside is in the cards. In EW terms $10, the base of the wedge or wave 4 of C, is a reasonable goal.

Copper itself may not fare quite as well. It has not returned to the lows of 2008/9, not even close as this long-term chart clearly shows;

Copper  1957-2015  Data  Chart

or in more detail;

Copper Kitco june 23 2015

Starting with the top chart, this is from the LME where they do things in pounds per ton, it is obvious that we are still well above the yellow 50+ year channel. So, if we were ever to regress to the mean, there is still serious downside potential, perhaps towards $2 or even $1.50 a pound. EW targets would be even lower than that, more like $1.25.

If nothing else, the long-term chart of copper shows how extraordinary this, give or take, ten year period from 2004 to the present has actually been. Linear extrapolation no longer has any predictive value.