GOLD, Aug. Future

gold july 21 2015

This is the August future contract on the CME. We are just thinking aloud so do not take this too seriously!

There could be a triangle here. All waves within the triangle should be three’.  a , c and e most certainly are; b and d lack clarity but they could be. Assume it is one than the “mouth” which is $240 wide projects a target of about 1200-240= $960 or roughly 4 lines lower than we are presently.

The high was at 1923 (spot) and the low in 2001 was 251, so gold travelled about $1672. Half of that is $836 on top of $251 equals $1087. You get the same result if you deduct $836 from $1923, if that works better for you. That is where we are now. 61.8% retracement would be 61.8×1672=$1033 From the top of 1923-1033=$890  I cannot verify these numbers but it appears that we might be going into the direction of a 62% retracement.

The $1000 even would be an acceptable compromise to both bull and bears. Time will tell.