Year: 2015

GOLD again

Hamilton

gold july 22 2015

The triangle idea is a little off because, as we pointed out, wave b (here shown as a) is fairly clearly a five wave move which disqualifies the already awkward looking triangle. More in line with the stocks, see for instance ABX would be the diagonal or wedge concept. There each of the five waves, both up and down should be 3’s. This could be the last, or 5th wave of such a structure. Equality, not an essential feature of this type of wedge, would suggest a low at around 1065-75 . This would be very close to the 50% and would allow for one more drop that I think is required to finish this leg down. Gold is already down about $15 which might indicate that we are in a minute 4th wave triangle.

AAPL update

Hamilton

aapl july 21-22 2015

Overnight AAPL traded down to about $121, losing about $60 billion in capitalization. Perhaps it was this odd lot trader from Papua New Guinea who got taken out of his 1 share stop-loss order. Perhaps there was real demand/supply. Whatever the case it demonstrates that a single trade resets the value of everybody’s holdings; you can get killed on no volume!

On April 28 we suggested this stock was really a sell, no ambiguity. Our friends in Gainesville followed suit a few weeks later with the exact same chart with the same triangle shown . We now have 3 tops at roughly the same distance from each other. They are about a dollar apart with the one in the middle the highest. This fits the very technical concept of a “rounding top”. In that situation the way down reflects the way up. That is not typically how it works as the downward path is normally much steeper, taking about 1/2 the time or even less..

AAPL missed by one million on 50 million units sold and 1 billion on 50 billion in sales. If my math is right that is about 2% which is why the stock is down 8%.

GOLD, Aug. Future

Hamilton

gold july 21 2015

This is the August future contract on the CME. We are just thinking aloud so do not take this too seriously!

There could be a triangle here. All waves within the triangle should be three’s.  a , c and e most certainly are; b and d lack clarity but they could be. Assume it is one than the “mouth” which is $240 wide projects a target of about 1200-240= $960 or roughly 4 lines lower than we are presently.

The high was at 1923 (spot) and the low in 2001 was 251, so gold travelled about $1672. Half of that is $836 on top of $251 equals $1087. You get the same result if you deduct $836 from $1923, if that works better for you. That is where we are now. 61.8% retracement would be 61.8×1672=$1033 From the top of 1923-1033=$890  I cannot verify these numbers but it appears that we might be going into the direction of a 62% retracement.

The $1000 even would be an acceptable compromise to both bull and bears. Time will tell.

UTX, United Technologies.

Hamilton

UTX july 2015

This is a conglomerate that has such companies as Otis elevators, Pratt & Whitney engines, Cessna airplanes and so on in its stable. Together with IBM this company caused a little pain in the US stock markets. It guided lower citing a drop in demand specifically from China, and that caused the worst day for this stock since Sept. 17 when the market reopened after having been closed for a few days on account of the Sept. 11 attack.

In about  5 months the stock lost $25 or 20% of it’s value which took six years to build. At this rate it would take about 2 1/2 years to get to the bottom. However it would appear that the stock is entering a third wave of some degree down and as a consequence is accelerating. The first serious support would be around $80 or so.