UTX update.

The usual then, July 21,2015, and now charts;

UTX july 2015utx feb 20 2016 b

Today’s chart covers a longer period of time which creates a wider channel but otherwise the analysis is the same. Notice that the longer timeframe has two triangles in it. As stated ad nauseam in this blog, triangles occur only either as 4th waves or as B-waves. The first is a fourth wave and the higher one a b-wave within a B-wave. We assume that because of the symmetry and the fact that it is not substantial larger than 130% of the A wave. We are down about another $25 or a similar percentage from the July 21 date. From the peak the stock is down about 37% More importantly it is now below the channel. This C leg should unfold in a 5-wave sequence. Soon the first wave of that sequence should be complete as shown in this detailed chart;

utx feb 20 2016

The bounce up in wave 2 of C often hits the channel from the underside at about $92 or thereabouts. Then the real fun starts in wave 3.

UTX, United Technologies.

UTX july 2015

This is a conglomerate that has such companies as Otis elevators, Pratt & Whitney engines, Cessna airplanes and so on in its stable. Together with IBM this company caused a little pain in the US stock markets. It guided lower citing a drop in demand specifically from China, and that caused the worst day for this stock since Sept. 17 when the market reopened after having been closed for a few days on account of the Sept. 11 attack.

In about  5 months the stock lost $25 or 20% of it’s value which took six years to build. At this rate it would take about 2 1/2 years to get to the bottom. However it would appear that the stock is entering a third wave of some degree down and as a consequence is accelerating. The first serious support would be around $80 or so.

UTX update

utx feb 2012

Back in July, early August last year we were convinced that this one had only one way to go and that is what it did, right to an initial target of about $65. This stock hit the lows at about the same time as most stocks. What is by no means clear is how one would get to 5-waves down for wave 1. I suspect the 5th wave of wave one was a failure and either occurred immediately after the low (blue) or in October (black).That was good for a loss of around 30%.

What I certainly did not expect is that the stock would recoup 75% of that loss and that it would take such a long time. Perhaps this is what 15 trillion in bank reserves and other stimulus  does? In any case today, looking at this rebound, it is quite obviously an a-b-c and a fairly precise one at that. The b is probable a triangle and the up-legs, a and c are either as shown in black or in red. Variations are possible but the main message here is that, for the moment at least, this is a correction and therefore the downward trend should resume any moment. This is a sell as the target remains as before (see previous blogs).

UTX, United technologies.

utx aug 2011

Less than a month ago, July 9th, I commented on UTX, prodded by an article in the Star by a prominent financial contributor (BC). The article seemed to me like one of those things that need to be done to meet the printing deadline. As far as I was concerned it was totally devoid of any real argument.

At the time the stock was at about $91. Today we hit $74 or down almost 19%. in less than a month! What is more disconcerting is that we actually have  “overlap”, at least in some degree. This excludes further advancement and $65 is starting to look pretty realistic, that is as a first stop.