RGLD, Royal Gold

rgld june 4 2016

Originally this was an oil and gas company that had to make a retreat from that business and went into the gold biz instead; very comforting to know. It is one of those royalty/streaming companies that make their living by providing capital in return for part of the “harvest”. They tend to be better diversified as they are involved with a good number of gold mining companies at once and are not that exposed to the operating vagaries of a single mine. The biggest upside is probable from increases in reserves but otherwise the performance is equally vulnerable to drops in the value of the “stuff”. The Queen has nothing to do with this, except that, in the good old days, She owned all the land and the royalties were collected on Her behalf.

    With a little imagination we have come up with a 5-wave count right into the top of $100. From there it did a clean A-B- down, with C equal to A and a decent drop of about 75%. From here the big question is whether or not that was the whole correction or if it will prove to be more complex. Looking at other gold stocks we would hold on until this stock reaches about $70 – where the B wave has two equal legs a and c, in beige. We are not sure that one would want to wait that long.