VRX update

vrx 22 aug 2016

You should have been able to buy this stock at $27 or less. Today it hit $40.41, exceeding our first target of $40 as mentioned in the previous blog. That is a return of more than 50% in slightly more than a month. Don’ forget that during this time there were a number of guru’s, including the Globe and Mail that professed to know that this stock was destined to go to zero, more or less in the same way Nortel once did. That prophecy may still come true but not before a rebound – which we may now have. However we do expect higher levels yet, to, say, $50 or so as that seems to be a 4th wave of sorts. If you want to participate in that potential outcome, and double your money, is entirely up to you or your risk tolerance.

   The human brain is built in such a way that it expects the past in the future, therefore we tend to extrapolate in a linear fashion. Most of the time this is a good thing. At or near turning points it is definitely not. EW as a methodology recognizes this and does the opposite, that is call turning points but at the risk of getting it wrong and not being in good company like that preeminent business paper, the Globe and Mail. We prefer it that way.