Volkswagen, revisited

volkswagen jan 16 2017

Back in the good old days of 2008 this stock traded close to $125. In the great recession it dropped to almost $12 or so. It is difficult to get a good long term chart! In any event it would seem to be probable that a new bull started around 2009 and that the rise to $50 is a first leg up.

       From the $50 level there appears to be a single fast and furious 60% drop to $20. If that is correct it cannot be a complete corrective wave 2. Furthermore the bounce from the low of $20 is unfolding in an a, triangle b and c countertrend. Chances are that this countertrend has a little further to go before it is complete. Somewhere around $32/33 would be ideal in that it would close the gap and result in equality between waves a and c. But we are already close enough. This stock should be sold here.

     The diesel environmental problems are mostly behind Volkswagen. Perhaps Trumps 35% import duties are going to become a headwind for this company and others, or maybe car sales are going down across the board. We will see.