HXU update and HXD

Hamilton

The usual then – Jan 14, 2015 – and now charts;

HXU jan 14 2015HXU feb 13 2015

We strained to believe it but the triangle was unmistakeable (as it was in so many other places) that it could not be ignored. In case you did heed the advice you could have owned this at about $26. We would sell today for a small profit of about 16% for the month. The very simple reason is that despite the very clear possibility of this ETF going to $34, we recognize that there is a possibility that there never was a triangle. The first leg down, the a leg, always looked more like a 5-wave affair than 3 waves. That is a no no in a triangle. From that low point in October we could have been doing a simple a-b-c (in black) counter trend bounce. This will be negated at around $31.30 , so less than a dollar away, but in the mean time this is a big risk for an investment that goes against the grain in any event.

A look at the counterpart, the HXD makes the above all the more plausible;

HXD feb 13 2015

Essentially this is, of course, the inverse of the HXU. Here we have a similar triangle which is probable a valid interpretation as this ETF actually already has made a new low. The last leg down, moreover, very much resembles a wedge. RSI and MACD are turning so this might be a very good thing to buy now. The extra charming attribute is that the HXD is relatively immune to a further rise in the TSX if that unexpectedly were to occur.

OIL update

Hamilton

Oil feb 13 2015

This is still our prognosis for oil. The bigger the number, the higher the degree. In the end wave C should bottom at a level below the $31 level of 2010, most likely near $10 the level it reached in the second half of the nineties. By one count that was a wave 4!

Citygroup and Goldman both are “predicting” oil to drop to around $20. The problem is that they are not predicting but are instead manipulating. If enough players pay attention it will no doubt come to pass.

AEX, Amsterdam update from Jan. 25th

Hamilton

aex feb 2015

Two or so weeks ago 465 looked like a reasonable target. We have gone a little more sideways while the World decided that Putin really is a nice guy and that the Greeks are trustworthy and will surely repay every cent they owe. Now the target looks more like 475, give or take. On a normal chart we are there! Objects are closer than you think.

Using a normal, non semi-log chart as from Yahoo, we may actually be at the target after all, but it is no longer the messy expanding diagonal and instead has become perfectly confined in a channel.

aex feb 13 2015

BBD.B, Bombardier

Hamilton

bbd.b feb 12 2015 lbbd.b feb 12 2015 s

There are, reportedly, companies (as in banks) that are considered too big too fail. In Canada there is also a company too “je ne sais quoi” to fail. It is, par excellence, Bombardier. First of all it is a Quebec based, culturally French company with very few peers in its field, trains and planes. If Ottawa drops support for Bombardier it would invite succession of the belle province from the rest of Canada which would be an economic disaster, or at least that seems to be the thinking.

Secondly we used to be big, or at least on the cutting edge of technology, with our very own Arrow. That project was abandoned in a disgraceful manner under pressure of the Americans. No politician would ever want to relive that event. Psychologically it is comparable to killing your only child. It just is not going to happen.

Ergo at $2.50 from oblivion this stock has to be a buy. As it happens that is also where the 25+-year trend line runs! RSI and MACD are also signalling a turn. From an EW perspective we are not too sure but it could be a series of 1-2’s.