OSK, Osisko update

Hamilton

osk jul 25 2012osk jul 25 2012 alt

Here is another update on Osisko. Originally we suggested buying this at $6.25. Then we identified the drop from $9 to $7, which erased most of the gains as a b-wave. We do that in order to start off with a minimum expectation. Now our take on this is that it was a wave 2 implying that we are presently in a wave 3 to the upside.

Given that we had had overlap between waves 4 and 2, this has to be a “diagonal” triangle. A misnomer if there ever was one, read expanding/contracting wedge. They occur only as 5th, as an ending diagonal, or C waves. Given that this is definitely not a 5th it has to be a C, implying that there must be an A and B in front of it which is indeed the case. As these patterns occur when things have gone too far and too fast, the almost always retrace the entire move. The risk then is that the diagonal is not yet complete, shown as an alternative. The problem with that count is that the proportions become ridiculous so the chances of that being correct are miniscule. That is also the case with other possible alternatives. So stay with it but use a stop just under $7, just in case.

IVN, Ivanhoe update.

Hamilton

ivn july 25 2012

See our 19 previous blogs on this stock. In honour of its new name,  starting August but trading Aug 6, we did this all in turquoise . That has the added benefit that you probable cannot read it all that well and will not notice if this proves to be dead wrong.

We have a few problems with the count shown but are trying our best to get to out ideal target of $7.08. We can get there if we gloss over a few irregularities at the top and assume that we are forming a 4th wave triangle. That would solve the timing problem and get us to the target. Of course chances are that we will not get there at all and turn a lot sooner. If you do want to buy do not forget to put the order in with the correct ticker!

By the way, after a little Googling the name does make some sense. Turquoise, or the gemstone is hydrated hydroxyl phosphate of copper and IVN is, if anything, a copper mine! Also the gemstone is the stone of wisdom and spiritual journeys, and corresponds with the astrological Sagittarius sign. If that does not move you here is another, in depth description;

Turquoise helps to ground the wandering wayward spirit,  while keeping their connection to the infinite open. Many people who have a lot of energy avoid "grounding stones" because they think it will "clip their wings".  But Turquoise will allow that energy path to remain open.  In fact, some Native cultures held the belief that by wearing it the human mind becomes one with the universe. Those seeking a profound healing of the spirit and soul should wear turquoise.

How appropriate for the steppes of Mongolia, I may, for a change, buy some myself.

TCK.B again

Hamilton

TCK jul 25 2012

So the stock dropped 8%, or something like that , today, to a low of $27+. Many brokers that are very knowledgeable would ridicule a forecast of $15 or so before things are over. Part of that is because they move in circles that are entirely and absolutely geared to sales, pure and simple. Nothing else matters at all. On top of that most of the supposed talking head channels are geared , not exclusively but primarily, to entertainment. Furthermore, and this is truly annoying, there is tendency to present information in the most positive light, except when things truly go wrong in which case there is no limit to the indignation. To the point; when did you  last see a 30+ year chart on a stock?? Here is one for 30+ years instead of the 3 months plus you usually see on TV or in your paper.

When you look closely and apply a little common sense, it is all of a sudden not that hard to see how this stock could go to $15 if the pendulum swings through it’s equilibrium as it invariable does. If you like the H&S approach the target is lower at around $10. The true EW target is actually below $5.

Fundamentally there is enough coal on this earth to last us a millennium. There is all this talk about how much copper is needed to build all those homes that are needed to move 300 mln. Chinese to the suburbs. No one ever talks about plumbing and the effects of wireless technology, just have a peek at the inventory at Home Hardware, very little copper and a lot of PVC, so maybe, just maybe, this fundamental argument is false.