TA, TransAlta

Hamilton

TA jul 2012TA s jul 25 2012

On July 16th this stock looked like it might well be a buy for the long haul. This despite our immediate target of $15. Well here we are and almost there so perhaps now it is even a better buy (we try to be constructive, see our blog under TA ZUT). We are tweaking the count a little bit as per the above charts. It looks like we might have had a B-wave triangle in an A-B-C overall correction (the e is outside the triangle but not beyond the top of c). Typically in these structures the C is equal to A or about 62% of that which would call for a price close to $12, which is also the 4th of wave 3 up. We do not now if it will get there, but if it does the rebound should be swift.

TCK.B reminder

Hamilton

tck apr 2012tck.B jul 2012

These are old charts , from April and June. Teck just reported 2d quarter profits that were down by 52% due to price falls in coal and copper. We will see what will happen to the stock but certainly our price target is becoming more realistic. The pendulum does not stop in the middle. The average price of the stock over the past 10 years or so is, eyeballing the Bigchart, about $30, where the stock is now. If the drop in profits is sustained over time $15 would actually fit like a T.

SAN , BBVA and the IBEX update

Hamilton

SAN Jul 25 2012BBVA jul 25 2012

IBEX jul 25 2012

Santander, Viscaya and the Madrid index are all at , close to, or even a little beyond what are “normal” reasonable targets under EW. The index could still do another 700 points or so to reach the 4th wave of previous degree but it has already lost precisely 62% of its value. Santander has maybe another 60 cents to go to get to the 02 lows, the 4th wave. Viscaya has done all that and is now pennies away from the trend line of the wedge wave c of C.

What one would expect in EW land is a turnaround somewhere here, if not for the IBEX as a whole then certainly for these two banks. To state the obvious , there is only another $4 left to the down side. Keep in mind also that Santander is the largest bank in the Eurozone and Viscaya is not that far behind. Both have extensive operations outside of Spain itself. If ever there were banks that fall into the “systemic”-risk category, it is these. Who knows, maybe just somehow they will pull another, bigger, rabbit out of the hat. If they are buys remains to be seen, time will tell etc. But in any event these banks are not good shorts.

Here they are in more detail:

san detail 2012bbva detail jul 2012

In the SAN case it is possible to draw the wedge less sharply which would change the count in such a way that we have only completed wave 3 and are now starting wave 4, that does not apply to BBVA at all. The RSI and MACD are not confirming the new lows.

BIDU, Baidu Inc.

Hamilton

BIDU 2012BIDU s 2012

Baidu, the Chinese equivalent of Google reported better than expected earnings and shot yp as a result. In the detailed picture it is clear that the 5th wave of C was a “diagonal” and consequently the stock should go at least to $125, and do so fast. In the big picture a case can be made that the entire sideways movement for the last year or more is a flat A-B-C, perhaps regular, perhaps irregular but almost certainly a flat (3-3-5). Chance are that this is then a 4th wave of the larger up trend that has lasted for all these years. If correct a 5th is missing, or seems to be missing. (There are a number of different counts that would lead to very different conclusions). Use stops when playing this from the long side.