CPG, Crescent Point Energy update

Hamilton

Then (Febr. 29 2011) and now.

CPG feb 29 2012cpg jul 2012

So the suggestion on Febr. 29th was to sell this one right away even if it could still go a little higher. It did so 2 days later on the next Monday (it is a leap year!) and dropped to $35.62 , less than a dollar short of the indicated target and more than 20% down.

Where does it go from here? My guess is down once the (red) a-b-c is done, which could still take the stock to, perhaps, $43. But, and this is a big but, there is also potentially a much larger A-B-C (in black) which could take the stock back above $47. This scenario does not jive with the outlook on oil, but nevertheless it remains a possibility. Stay on the side.

IFF, update

Hamilton

IFF jul 2012

Exactly a year ago we suggested that this was a sell and even though , at certain points, it was down by almost 20%, it has done essentially nothing except, perhaps, frustrate both bulls and bears. The 1-2, 1-2 count, which includes a failure for the top, is little more than a wild guess. One can easily substitute a simple a-b-c and come up with only a single 1-2. the important thing is that the stock has been range bound for more than two years now,so the odds still favour the downside. (see previous blog).

CEF.A, Central Fund

Hamilton

See our previous blog of Aug 21, 2011. It was trading at around $26, now it is at $20 and has been below that.

cef.a 2012

In three different publications I have seen the action over the past year described as a triangle. It is not, period. Ralph Nelson Elliott who described the different patterns in detail, from empirical observations of course, would not accept a “triangle” if the boundary were in the same direction, they simple cannot both be down. I believe that Glen Neely later expanded the repertoire to include such structures which he called “running triangle”. So I guess it all depends on whether or not you are old school or new school. In any event it does not matter that much as if you were to use an a-b-c, with the c as a wedge, you end up with the same end result.  As far as I am concerned, anything can happen from here on, the light is amber.

ALA, Altagas Income Ltd.

Hamilton

ala 2012ala 2012s

Curious ticker! This company is in the generating, storage, transmission and distribution business for gas but also electricity. Essentially it is a utility. The stock lost about 1/2 of its value during the 2008 debacle and has since regained that value and then some. It has double topped and looks like it might try to go higher in a 5th wave, which could go as far as $34/$37 depending what one bases the expectation on. These guys are from Alberta, the no nonsense plainspoken cowboy types as one can readily tell from their admirable mission statement;

ala mission

They choose their words carefully even if that cannot be said for their ticker symbol. They are very circumspect in this exercise , distinguishing between wanting and needing and expecting  and deserving. Notice that the most dour of the four verbs is reserved for the shareholders, you will not get what you want, what you need or what you expect, just what you deserve! Could it be that they can see into the future??

Put in a stop-loss at $28 and sell at $34 and you will get what you expect.