FVI, Fortuna Silver

fvi sept 2011

Fortuna has spent the better part of this year rotating around, roughly $5.50. This behavior could indicate that a triangle formed, either from the beginning of the year (purple) or from  April. I prefer the latter as the thrust would still fit inside the established channel. The target would be a little under $8 at around the time of the apex (about 2 months from now). An alternative that is perhaps the best count is that there are no triangles whatsoever and that the stock is forming a wave to or B just under the level of the previous top. This fits best with the action of gold itself and that of the Swiss Franc that was down by a hefty 8.5% today, an unheard of large move. Whatever the count this stock should trade at $4/$3.50 in the very near future, perhaps lower. A sell.

FVI, Fortuna Silver Mines, update

fvi jul 2011

This stock has not crashed (yet?), in fact it stayed pretty well level for 6 months or so. This one is like a micro cosmos of the TSE itself. Depending on how you count the thing, we could continue up, or drop like a rock. Typically where you have an irregular b-wave (in blue), the subsequent C-wave drops below the start of the A-leg. This has not happened and may hint at a bullish resolution. On the other hand the drop from the actual top is a, relatively clear 5-wave affaire followed by an equally clear correction. This would favor the downside. The big picture, see previous blogs, also favor the downside.

FVI , FR , HZU all silver.

FVI apr 20111

Got this one wrong the first time, thought it was a sell at the red arrow. In the meantime it has added 2 waves and now one can count 9 in total which may, once again herald the end of the sequence. See also the charts for FR , First Majestic and the Hor Betapro 2X ETF;

FR 2011 HZU 2011

FR also has this 9 wave sequence, numbered as the normal 5-waves bull market. It too may be complete or close to that. HZU is a little new to the plate but may actually be contributing to this momentum action. It is nearly vertical as we approach the Hunt brothers $55 peak back in the early eighties. We may not reach that level.