TSX update.

TSX1

This is the bullish case, it is an A-B- correction and by definition should be followed by a new high. The C is an expanding diagonal that should be retraced entirely (which must happen in order to get a new high). The critical point is the upper trend-line around 13600. This also corresponds with a 50% retracement of the entire drop of about 1500 points. Given the large number of stocks that have clear B-waves I doubt that this is the correct count.

tsx2 tsx3

On the bearish side there are a variety of 1-2, 1-2 scenarios that could apply. As the last down leg is from 13900 to 12750, or roughly 1150 points a 62% retracement would lead to 13500, close to today’s high. A little higher is still possible but beyond that the immediate  bear case gets very dicey. Look for an update soon.