COS.un , Canadian Oil Sands.

cos 2011 l

cos.un sept 2010

These are old charts going back to early November 2010, below is what actually happened;

cos aug 2011

The stock did not quite make it to $39, it reached $34 simple because the c wave was only 62% of the a wave instead of being equal.It essentially failed to record a new high, a potentially very dangerous signal . That is why you have to look at the commodity as well to get a feel for when a stock may turn. Since peaking the stock has lost about 1/3 of its value. At the moment a good bounce may well be in the cards but ultimately a new low should be anticipated. I am not sure at what price for oil the existing investments become “stranded” but it is somewhere around $40 to $60 for the industry as a whole. In the stock market there are no negative values, in economics there definitely are. They occur when the operating exceed revenues for extended period of time and the best choice is to abandon the operation. Certainly not a likely event, but the question is how close can we get to it. This is what Schumpeter’s creative destruction is all about.