The usual then, Nov. 2010, five years ago, and now charts;

On the left our expectation back in Nov. of 2010, bases on EW and supported by the fundamental view that there might be “stranded costs”. On the right what actually happened with that same expectation in a schematic form entered into the chart in green. Interestingly time was where things went wrong but this is known to be the Achilles heel of EW. All in all it took 4 years longer than expected but who could have known that the Fed. would run such a completely misguided, bull-headed zero interest policy for so long.

We are not there yet and with the takeover we may never get there. However if the shareholders/management persist in not wanting to face reality, it may happen yet.

Then 15th of April, 2015 and now charts,as usual;

Not a bad prediction. The target was $5 and we hit $5.61 his is the stock that we warned would suffer from “stranded costs” at a time when that was not even remotely on the horizon. If you bought around the low you would have had a one day return near 20%. There are other stocks that have done similar percentages, as for instance TCK.B.

We are never perfectly sure as our charts do not have sufficient resolution but even though we recognize that somewhere here this stock might be a buy in terms of buying low and selling high, we do not think the stock hit it’s low. As near as we can tell only waves 1. 2 and 3 of 5 are complete. This leaves one more wave down to a new low!

Here is TCK.B

In the text, see June 22 , 2015 blog we mention the possibility of this stock getting to $5, the actual low was $7.08. Coming from $65 this may well be enough. However, normally, if there is such a thing, the C wave should make a new low, that is below the 2009 low.

The usual then, Dec 4, 2014 and now charts;

The target was $7 for Feb., it got to $6 on Feb. 2nd. It was recommended as a buy despite the fact that this stock was earmarked for a “stranded cost” example long before the notion of that being possible ever arose. Supposing you did buy there then the target was about $13 where the gap would close. $14 is where the c is equal to the a in the a-b-c bounce. It is now at $ 12.84 having reached a high of $13.04. Time to sell. If you care to gamble wait for $14 and double your money, by that time the RSI should be firmly in overbought territory.

If our longer term take on this stock is correct, and why would it not be as you just about doubled your money, this is wave 4 to be followed by wave 5 to new lows. In 2008 this stock was the darling of the industry at $55. Smells a little stranded.

The usual then – Dec. 4 , 2014 – and now charts. (do look at that blog!)

We expected this stock to drop to about $7 at the end of wave 3. We were wrong by a dollar, it got to $6 on Jan. 30, 2015. That was more or less based on the gap-in-the-middle concept for wave 3. Now that every prognosticator has hedged his bets by stating that they would not be surprised if oil dropped to $20 or whatever, you knew things were about to turn around ( see also RDS.A that got to within $2or $3 of our target of $59). COS will be taken up to a level that should at the very least close the gap, that is >$13. This is wave 4 in the large C wave down, so enjoy the ride – it should take the form of an a-b-c – and get out in time as wave 5 should take it down again to a level of only a few dollars.