FVI, Fortuna.

fvi sept 19 2011

Fortuna is an example in point. % waves may be complete, but then they may not be. If the sequence is complete we are looking at a B-wave that makes the stock double-top about where it is now. However is a simple 5th wave is in progress we could go all the way to the upper trend-line. Between those two is a triangle ( in blue) or a wedge (in red). Other counts may apply but they are not readily visible so , probable do not exist. Ergo if you short this now, or stay short, chances are 10 to 1 that the stock will trade back at least to $4.5 (triangle and wedge) or $3.5 (wave 3 of 3?) or even $3 (62%). In the end much lower levels may apply given enough time. In short you are almost guaranteed a return of at least 30% even if you are wrong by being too early.