Procter & Gamble


Procter & Gamble is cutting its outlook, and its stock buy-back plan. These guys are ’s marketers par excellence. What is not clear is whether or not that is a compliment. In 1973 I applied for a job at their European headquarters which were then in Geneva. They spared me the agony if becoming a salesman by rejecting my application, making it clear that salesmanship was not, by a long shot, my trump card. Instead I should have borrowed a truckload of money and bought the stock which would have earned me more than actually working a lifetime.

Today the stock should be sold! There is little doubt that there is a 5-wave sequence up from the lows (this is even clearer on a semi-log chart, see below). The first target would be the channel  line at about $53, next is $45 and then $40. The best target overall is at $29 (4th of p.d. and 62%). All of this even in an ongoing bull market in the event that we are presently in a 4th wave of a higher degree than shown. Colgate-Palmolive may at long last go in the same direction having topped $100.

PG semi-logPG CL

For those so inclined, there appears to be a pairs trade here. Sell Colgate and buy P&G, 2 to 3; the spread has never been larger. However if the starting point of the chart is brought forward the spread is reduced significantly.

cl pg