CP and CNR

cp dec 2012 bcp dec 2012 s

We have been completely wrong on both CP and CNR (see under CNR). Both have behaved like runaway trains far exceeding our expectations. CP is now trading at a p/e close to 24 and a yield of about 1.5% The new boss has just announced his plans to get the operating ratio down another 10 points, the recipe is the usual one, fire a quarter of the workforce and announce it just before X-mas. Just like in that famous movie that is always played over and over around this time -  the new boss even fits in well – , this may ultimately backfire. Even the analyst at RBCDS is looking for a double digit drop. The scary part is that this situation demonstrates clearly to what extent a hedge fund can actively muscle its way into the running of a company, perhaps a good thing at certain times, perhaps not when it is a little overdone. This is a sell on the next bounce.