Year: 2012

X, TMX update.

Hamilton

Dead wrong on this one. Last bit of regulatory approval was given by BC and Alberta the other day, so it is looking like a done deal, valued at $50. Needless to say , I am surprised that this deal is getting the go ahead. In the end the exchange will control some 90% of all trading in stocks in Canada and will, essentially, be owned by the financial industry or ,at least, a good part of it. In any event stockholders should tender their shares as without this bid the stock would probable not be anywhere near these levels. Below are the stocks of a few different exchanges as well as the TMX;

x jul 2012nyx jul 2012

db1 jul 2012lse jul 2012

The time frames are not all synchronous but the thrust of the argument, that is that the TMX stands alone, is pretty obvious. The best comparison, arguable would be with the New York stock exchange, but despite initially being reasonable well correlated that came to an abrupt halt in 2009. Clearly all exchanges other than the TMX continue to move more or less in the same direction. Apart from the London Stock Exchange all are close to the lows of the Great Recession. The TMX is close to the highs reached before that. Why? Are there monopoly rents waiting to be harvested?

A good example might be the Canadian Securities Institute, which used to be part of the regulatory environment. Back in 1992 the CSC, Can. Sec. Course, the exam required among others to qualify to become a broker, cost $400. Now, 20 years later, the same course costs $1280. In the mean time, of course, ownership changed to private, very commercial, hands.

IVN, Ivanhoe update

Hamilton

ivn geisIVN jul 2012

Left is then, Dec 2011, the right is now. The rise from about $13 to $23 gave it all away. It was a little too much for a 4th wave and consequently it was more likely a B wave in the middle of a very large A-B-C, zig-zag correction. The target shown initially was around $8 but is actually a little lower, more like $6+. But it does not have to stop there, the 4th wave of prev. degree is, after all, down at only $2. In detail;

ivn july 12 2012

Our best guess at this point is that the correction is developing in a double zig-zag, a-b-c X a-b-c. The ideal target, all things considered would be approximately $7.08. Time will tell. The count is not infallible and only meant as an approximation (for instance, the first a could be placed much further to the left).

Fundamentally this is a huge mine, with huge ego’s and the ghost of Genghis Kahn riding through it all, anything is possible!

CIX, CI Financial

Hamilton

CI Financial has about $94 bln. in assets under management which puts them right up there in terms of size. The chart is interesting to say the least;

ci 2012

EW does not always provide the answers. At least half the time it would simple be a guessing game and therefore it is important to analyze charts to find the stocks that do have a clear picture and leave the others alone. CI falls in that category but I cannot resist the temptation.

This is a huge 14 year long triangle or, at the very least, a congestion pattern. The purple line is an approximation of the base line but it has no other meaning. The triangle is drawn in such a way that it will result in a thrust down, it is bearish. If you move the a,b,c,d and e one further to the right  you would get the same thing but bullish! The bear just seems to fit better given what is going on overall. The e-leg most often does not go to the trend-line, in fact it is probable close to done. Not much to go by but at least it is a roadmap.