FTSE update

ftse dec 09 2013ftse dec 9 2013

Again we do not know which of the two first tops is the real top. We could count it either as a series of two 4-5s, making the second top the “real” one, or count the whole thing as a complex flat wave A. What does stand out fairly clearly, is that the latest climb up is a B-wave. It is near impossible to count it otherwise. From that point – 22 of May 2013 -   the index starts down with a perfectly clean and unmistakeable 5-wave wave 1. The rebound again is an unmistakeable 3-wave a-b-c that does not make a new high. We should now, if all this is correct, be in wave 1 of 3 of C. There could be a long way to go.

After an extended wave, which the one from 1985 ,or earlier, to 2000 on the chart clearly is, it is normal for the next pull-back to reach approximately the level of wave 2 of that extended wave. In this case that is the peak in late 1987 when we had the single largest one day pull-back. That level is at about 2500 on this index.

This count could be wrong if this index is in the early stages of making a contracting diagonal triangle ( read; wedge) the only structure that has overlap. This possibility that is in any event highly unlikely, will for all intents and purposes be negated with a drop below the lower trend-line where the index presently sits. Time will tell.