C, Citygroup

c june 21 2014

Back in the early seventies this bank was known as FNCB, First National City Bank. It was admired, envied and used as a role model for aggressive (commercial) banking. It’ CEO for almost twenty years, Walter Wriston was considered the eminence grise of banking. Once , with a group of about eight people, I had the pleasure of having lunch with him. He was definitely made from the old patrician, aristocratic benign despot mould. Then there was Sandy Weil who believed in one-stop-shopping and built a not so cohesive empire accordingly. Jim Reed was another one, perhaps best known for his remark that you got to keep dancing as long as the music goes. Rubin was right up there as well and together with Greenspan was instrumental in making all this possible by getting rid of Glass-Steagall by repealing it in ‘99.

In short this bank, once the biggest  in the US, was always in the limelight. It also managed to trace out a spectacular Elliott Wave pattern, that of an A-B-C. The time between the top and the second top is about six years, about the same time as this market has spent doing the same thing. In fact in Canada it was precisely six years to the day! The B-wave in this case lasted about four years and had the same “feel” to it as the markets have had over the past few years. Under the circumstances it is difficult to stay focused unless you have a good look at the C-wave. Typically it is about 1.618 times the size of the A wave.This may be exactly what the markets have in store for us soon!