IGM Financial (Investors Group and McKenzie Financial) update

These guys are about 20X larger than AGF and are more profitable. Nevertheless we expect the direction to be the same. Here are the then, Feb.17, 2015 and now charts as usual;

IGM feb 17 2015IGM dec 22 2015

Eight months ago the stock was at about $44 and just the other day it was at $34 so it is dropping at the rate of about a dollar a month. We expected, and now expect, that the stock will drop to the lowest level of the 4th wave of previous degree which is about $15. It does not have to go that far but the 61.8% retracement at about $21 is a pretty good bet. If it keeps up the pace we could be there by the end of 2016.

Mutual funds and investment dealers are facing difficult times. Charging 3% .a. is easy if you make 6,7 or 8 plus percent. It gets harder when you are in a 3% , or lower, environment. There are a whole host of regulatory changes, issues with transparency (which is still hard to find), legal position with respect to being a fiduciary or not, and so on. The times that you could charge 10% as a fee (Horizon Fund) or take 3 to 5 full points on a zero-coupon bond are gone and will not come back. It will be a difficult battle if markets cooperate, but an impossible battle if they do not.

Here is another performance comparison, including AGF.B (in black this time).

mutual funds re tsx dec 2015