This is pretty messy. Too many lines and too much stuff. Anyway this is the broadest index and should therefore be representative of the US market, at least more so than the Dow. Initially we thought there was a 5-wave sequence down in Sept. and Oct. from the high (by 3 ticks) in early Sept. That was pretty well retraced ,just short by about 40 points. Then we do the whole thing again and may be halfway in doing once again after that. All that could be construed as a series of 3 1-2’s of different degrees. This is extremely bearish as once this bounce is done a wave 3 will start and that is where the real damage will happen. And if you have not noticed, this index managed to gain all of 200 points over an entire year which is about 2%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) the CAC (Paris) and GDOW have similar charts but there is more of a downward slope and they all lost over the year. All this despite a lot of massaging by the Fed. et al.
If you look closely through all the clutter , there is a very nice inverse head and shoulder pattern. I have no expertise in that area so I looked it up and below is an example of such a pattern;
The inverse H&S pattern is a continuation pattern and if that is the case here it should be quite bullish, good for at least another 1000 points. We do not believe it but just present this possibility to show that anything is still possible.